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China’s economic growth expects to be 7.1% in 2015

BEIJING: China’s economic growth in 2015 is expected to be 7.1 percent, according to a research report released by Xiamen University in Japan’s Kobe here the other day.

The report was released at an international seminar on China’s macroeconomic performance jointly organized by China’s Xiamen University, Economic Information Daily of Xinhua News Agency, and Japan’s Kobe University.

The report is based on the China Quarterly Macroeconomic Model (CQMM), a research project at the Center for Macroeconomic Research (CMR) at Xiamen University.

According to the report, in the first half of 2015, with downward pressure on economic growth, the cumulative growth rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in China reached 7.0 percent, a decrease of 0.42 percentage points over the previous year, reaching its nadir since 2000.

But on the other side, the adjustments of the economic structures were beginning to take effect, and the economy was growing stably after hitting the bottom.

Based on the forecast by CQMM, despite of the downward pressure, China’s economic growth rate in 2015 is expected to reach around 7.1 percent. The CPI will be 1.62 percent, stabilizing the inflation at a low level.

For the next five years (2016-2020), the forecast shows that the potential growth rate will be around 6.79 percent annually and averagely. Although it is a relative high speed, it can be further increased through continuing optimizing the economic structure.

During the next few years, China shall “optimize economic structure by constant and flexible policies to create the environment for future development”, including expanding private investment, promoting the share of modern service industry and the efficiency of financial department so as to improve the productivity of the tertiary industry, and improving the labor productivity, said the report.This is the 19th forecast report issued by research team of Xiamen University based on CQMM. Center for Macroeconomic Research (CMR) of Xiamen University issues a report on China’s macroeconomic outlook twice a year since 2006. From 2010 on, CMR and Economic Information Daily of Xinhua News Agency released the reports jointly.


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